appreciation/depreciation of a collection over time

[Overload]

For a while I've been selling the games I come across that I don't intend to play, if I can get a few bucks for em on Amazon. After picking up a 80+ low-to-no profit sports and other games, I kind of got the hoarding/collecting bug again. I've since started keeping games that I could quickly make a profit on, with thoughts of selling in 20+ years. What I'm wondering is, which types of games can I expect to gain value? Do you think a lot of these disc-based games are going to hold some value by virtue of age alone, like we see with NES carts? I guess this depends on the console, with Wii being likely more valuable than OG xbox. Certain games in particular I'm not sure about. Something like Need for Speed Underground 2 currently has some value to it, but that might be due to some people still rocking PS2 as their only/main console due to poverty. I expect something like this might go down in the near term, but not sure if it'll pick back up. Guitar Hero III does alright as well, even on PS2. Some games like Just Dance 3 and other party/family wii games I'm also not sure about. The wii still sells fairly well, so there are still plenty of active players looking for these and the Wii's still pretty much the dominant family/party console. I don't see this particular game holding or going up in value. On a similar note, I've been hoarding plastic instruments for guitar hero/rock band given they're no longer produced, and I expect them to hold or increase in value.

[isiolia]

Some of what you're seeing looks to me more like pricing algorithms than anything else. Need for Speed Underground 2 is not valuable used (~$5). The New/Sealed price doesn't reflect that though, and that's often typical. Online retailers can implement automatic price adjustments based on stock/etc. It's not always noticeable or that dramatic unless the seller put some odd bounds on it. Some treat older items like brick and mortar does, and lower the price to clear stock. Others have the price go up as stock dwindles, which is the only direction new/sealed titles for old systems are going to tend to go.
While, of course, sealed examples of games can become collector's items over time, it does make for a very misleading market prices if other sellers are just glancing at the first Amazon price they see. Or it'll pull up the used value even (probably the case for something like Uncharted: The Golden Abyss that's sitting at ~$112 New right now). Are people even buying games like that at multiples of their original retail price? I kinda doubt it.

Eventually, I think we'll see things normalize. Either by having those copies relegated to collector status only, or price adjusted to more reasonable levels (or just not having any New copies left, as I'm sure is already the case for plenty of games). Logically speaking, many of the popular titles from 6th gen and on have been or will be rereleased in some form. Which is not to say that valuable titles won't pop up, I'd just say they'll be hard to predict. Maybe 20 years from now the reason to dig up the original console/disc will be to experience a licensed soundtrack that's been long since swapped out.

[Overload]

need for speed underground 2 is selling for $13 with the amazon prime bump. merchant fulfilled, still $9. these are the kinds of middle-of-the-road games I'm wondering about. Picked up a couple copies for a buck a piece, so I don't have a lot tied up in them, and am not sure if it's better to sell now, or to throw them into the vault. I guess it's just a numbers game, with the chance of a collection appreciating over time dependent on its size and variety.

[isiolia]

Personally, that's still not something I'd consider valuable. Mostly because I just assume most sellers will have a lower bound on what's worth their time to list for sale and/or rely on shipping & handling to make it viable. You can look at, literally, the most common PS2 games out there (GTA San Andreas, Gran Turismo 3, etc) and find that ordering a used copy from Amazon is basically going to start at around $5-6, if not starting to get to $9-10.
Something a dollar or three more, to me, still falls to the lower end of things. To me, middle tier PS2 is more with the games that start at $20 used, and quickly go up to $40-60 for a complete copy. Stuff like Capcom vs SNK 2, Valkyrie Profile 2, King's Field the Ancient City, etc. that are worth something, but not yet well past original retail just to start like Blood Will Tell, Haunting Ground, Rule of Rose, or even Xenosaga Episode III now are.

[8bit]

A couple of thoughts...

1) Speculating on future values of collectibles is generally not a good idea. You're better off putting your time, money, and effort into something else like stocks, mutual funds, or savings. Games should not be viewed as an investment, but rather as a hobby. Don't think you are setting yourself up for early retirement by buying cheap games today. The bottom could easily fall out at any time as it did for sports cards, certain classic cars, beanie babies, and soon enough funco pops. (This coming from someone who has a collection with "current market value" of around $50K. I know by holding onto this many games long term is only going to see the value fall overall. I keep them because I love the hobby.)

2) The titles you are referring to are generally considered low tier titles, which were mass produced in the millions. Sports, racing and rhythm games, except in very rare instances, are quickly replaced by the current year's release and are not very desirable titles as the years go on. You'd be wise to instead of focus your attention on genres that have more lasting appeal such as RPGs, SHMUPs, and Horror. These genres have unique stories and mechanics which are not quickly overshadowed by the following year's release which allows them to keep their appeal longer. Again though, I wouldn't speculate that all games in these genres will find collectible status in the future.

3) In general future generations are not going to care about physical media like we do today. As the gen x and y generations age out, there are going to be fewer collectors out there looking to acquire physical media. Add to the fact that you can emulate just about every generation of gaming on single board computers, PCs, mobile devices, and flash carts, the need to buy games to play them is also going away.

[marurun]

8bit’s analysis is pretty spot on. The other thing to keep in mind is that even if those things do go up in value, you have to sell them to extract that value. The easiest way to sell is to sell in bulk, but that’s not how you get premium returns. Selling larger lots means providing a discount, which would likely eat up a lot of accumulated value. The way to maximize returns is by selling individual titles for the most you can get, but that’s a ton of work, and with the titles you seem interested in, it just isn’t going to be worth the time and energy investment.

If those low-tier titles are what you want to collect, please do so, but as soon as you start imagining they are a financial investment you need to slap yourself and run the other way.

[Overload]

I agree with most of it, but I think future generations are going to have a lot of collectors who are interested in the games as relics of a bygone era, in the way that some kids today collect vintage stuff like Atari. By that reasoning, I expect demand for most games to gradually increase over time. It could take decades, however, so personally I'm selling most of the stuff I can make a few bucks on, while buying the currently more or less valueless junk. I pay practically nothing at the outlet I source from so it's not a lot of money tied up for nothing. And I can always open a flea market booth down the line.