Weird Science: Moore's Law

[J T]

Co-founder of Intel, Gordon Moore, observed in 1965 that the number of transistors per square inch on integrated circuits has doubled every year since the invention of the integrated circuit. He predicted this yearly doubling effect would happen for the foreseeable future, leading to exponential increases in computer memory, speed, and fidelity. So far, he has basically been right, though it has slowed down to every 18 months rather than every year. This is now called “Moore’s Law” and it’s expected to hold true for at least another 20 something years.

You may already have a terabyte drive (~1,000 GB). After that you’ll have a petabyte drive, then an exabyte drive, then a zettabyte drive, and then a yottabyte drive. As of 2013, the World Wide Web was estimated to have reached 4 zettabytes of data. For a sense of what those numbers even mean, Linguist Mark Liberman calculated an estimate that if you digitized all human speech ever spoken at 16 kHz 16-bit audio, then it would take up 42 zettabytes of data. Your personal computer will one day be able to handle that much information. If Moore’s Law continues to hold, it may even one day be possible for me to install my entire Steam library on one computer! Whoa.

For more fun facts that make sense of these memory storage capacities, check out this link:
http://highscalability.com/blog/2012/9/ ... abyte.html

The fact that Moore’s Law has held true for so long, and is likely to continue to be true, means that computers are going to get IMMENSELY powerful. This increased computing power allows for further advancements across multiple fields including artificial intelligence, big data analytics, molecular nanotechnology, holographic imaging, quantum computing, etc. What do you think is going to fill all that data in the future? Obama has funded the BRAIN Initiative, which seeks to map out all of the neurons in the brain, similar to how the Human Genome Project sequenced human DNA, and is projected to get into the Yottabytes of data. Currently, I have heard one estimate that roughly 85% of the data on the internet is generated by humans. That number is certainly likely to change as machines get more connected and generate more data and content than humans could ever even attempt to create on their own. What other data hogs will reach Yotta levels in the future?

[flojocabron]

We've all see this in our lifetimes! The expansion of data.

Just as a basic example: From this



To this:



I can see a future when all of wikipedia can be contained in a single flash drive!

We will be able to carry around our complete DNA profile in said drive.

We will have a huge playstation 4 library of ISO's so we can emulate Sony's classic machine on the go. Just like our smart phones carry old game roms. New hardware will run old PS4 games with ease.

I'm sure excess data will be everywhere. Manufacturers wont be able to go create smaller version of memory capacity.

How many times have you seen 2GB and 4GB memory cards being sold retail now? It's quite rare. Most stuff now is 16 and up.

There will be a day a few years from now, when you go to wal-mart to buy a memory card and people will complain because they were only able to find a 1TB flash card.

Right now we have an inkling of thoughts over how we can use so much data. I'm sure people will find a way to max out these huge amounts of data.

I remember a time when we thought DVDs were huge! And I was happy when on my old PC, a friend of mine gave me a 128mb card as a gift to add to my 512mb built in.

my computer was sooo fast!

[samsonlonghair]

Funny, I was just talking about advancement of computers in your immortality thread.

Thermodynamics seems to indicate that there must be a ceiling to Moore's Law. This increase of transistors per square inch has been made possible simply by building smaller transistors closer together. A transistor, no matter how small, is still a machine. Thermodynamics tells us that there is no perfectly efficient machine; all machines generate heat. Now we know that there must be a limit to how much heat a computer can withstand. Even if we build elaborate cooling mechanisms, there comes a point when the quadrillions or quintillions of transistors are simply too close together and making too much heat for the computer to function properly.

To overcome this limit, we must create a new form of computing.

[MrPopo]

We've already run into the problem of heat with CPUs. That's why you stopped seeing the massive increase in clock speeds like we used to see in the 90's; the Pentium 4s were blisteringly fast but ran hot as the dickens and they ran into a wall. Now they increase the number of cores to improve performance while the raw clock speed has pretty much plateaued.

Another problem you run into as you shrink things is that the effects of quantum tunneling become very real and must be accounted for.

[J T]

To overcome this limit, we must create a new form of computing.

That's something that some people far smarter than me are already trying to do already with what is called DNA computing or DNAzymes. Check it out!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DNA_computing

The other major question is 'how the hell do you even build something that small?" I mean, if one small speck of dust gets in the way, your circuit is toast. I don't yet understand how tiny circuits are made, but I know that they currently have robots that go into the production room and zap everything with various UV rays to clean the place to ridiculous degrees. I don't know how micro things are being put together though. I've just kind of recently become fascinated in all of this cutting edge nano stuff and I'm blown away by what's already happening in more experimental settings.

Another problem you run into as you shrink things is that the effects of quantum tunneling become very real and must be accounted for.

Yes, once you get small enough to be doing computing at the quantum level, nothing makes any sense (at least not to me).

Some people have actually seen quantum tunneling as a solution rather than a problem though, apparently (I just found this after a good google about the problem you brought up):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunnel_diode


Here's an easy to understand (as far as anything qunatum goes) poster about how quantum computing is done by using qubits, which unlike a classic binary bit (0 or 1), can actually be both 0 and 1 at the same time.

http://media.defenceindustrydaily.com/i ... ned_lg.png


Because quantum level physics is so hard to wrap your mind around given that things don't behave like they do on our macro level, there have been interesting efforts to attempt visualizations of quantum phenomenon. Notably, someone has actually created a Minecraft mod called qCraft, where the objects behave like quantum particles. This is supposed to help "kids" understand this stuff, but I think "adults" need just as much help in understanding it.

[J T]

I'm just going to make a prediction now that once we can fit a yottabyte onto a thumb-drive sized device, that someone is going to pronounce it as a yodabyte and use this quote.

I think I've just made a years early "In before _____" joke.