Another Videogame Crash

[Flake]

I honestly do not like the way the video game industry is today. I think games are cookie cutter and shallow these days. I think the hardware(s) they are programmed for is unstable at best and bricks in the making. I think that the videogame industry has become such a streamlined money making machine that all the wonder and excitement is gone.

I think that the videogame industry will crash again.

But I am trying to step back and ask myself this question: Are these things I dislike actual problems or just personal hang ups?

Is another crash even possible?

[AppleQueso]

I couldn't even count how many times I've heard people try and say this.

I'm sure someone else can come in and elaborate.

[Flake]

I couldn't even count how many times I've heard people try and say this.

I'm sure someone else can come in and elaborate.

Well I hope I am not being mistaken for proclaiming that dark days are ahead. I am just hoping to discuss whether the current problems in the industry are actually even problems, let alone problems large enough to lead to a collapse.

[Limewater]

Well I hope I am not being mistaken for proclaiming that dark days are ahead. I am just hoping to discuss whether the current problems in the industry are actually even problems, let alone problems large enough to lead to a collapse.

I don't think the current problems in the market are what will lead to a collapse. I do think that video games are "in" right now, though, and the market will naturally correct itself in the not-too-distant future. I don't think it will be a crash, but just a gradual cooling-off. Maybe I'm wrong. I am planning to sell my Electronic Arts stock within the next few days.

[Flake]

Well I hope I am not being mistaken for proclaiming that dark days are ahead. I am just hoping to discuss whether the current problems in the industry are actually even problems, let alone problems large enough to lead to a collapse.

I don't think the current problems in the market are what will lead to a collapse. I do think that video games are "in" right now, though, and the market will naturally correct itself in the not-too-distant future. I don't think it will be a crash, but just a gradual cooling-off. Maybe I'm wrong. I am planning to sell my Electronic Arts stock within the next few days.

So you are suggesting oversaturation of the market and that natural corrective measures would be limited to those responsible for that oversaturation?

[CRTGAMER]

Market is definitely over saturated but the game market is huge and so much bigger then before. I think the first crash attributed not only too many same games, but more to the computer first hitting the home market at an affordable price. The influx of Commodore Vic20/C64, Sinclair, TI99, Atari and AppleII+.

Computers and consoles now are similar with downloads, Internet and hard drive upgrades.

[Czernobog]

Over-saturation is what has lead to market crashes in the past as far as I know and we are in a very over-saturated market, but I don't think we will have a crash at this point because gaming has become too mainstream. The movie market is extremely over-saturated but has become such a common viable form of entertainment that a market crash is extremely unlikely. This is all just speculation of course because I really don't know much about the inner-workings of market fluctuations but that's my two cents for what it's worth.

[Limewater]

So you are suggesting oversaturation of the market and that natural corrective measures would be limited to those responsible for that oversaturation?

No, I'm not suggesting oversaturation so much as I'm suggesting that current demand levels will cool. The gaming industry now has a consistent cycle of blockbuster titles that will do well, but not as well as they have in the past.

I mean, I think there might be some oversaturation, but I don't think that it will have a strong, negative effect on the market. Producers have stepped up because demand is high because video games are really popular right now. When the novelty wears off, which I think will happen soon, many smaller shovelware producers will have to find a new business, and the biggest-budget games won't be able to consistently expect to sell at current levels. There will be downsizing at many large development studios.

When we'll really see oversaturation is when demand cools, but producers are still pumping out games at the current rate. For what it's worth, I don't blame oversaturation for the crash of 1983. Demand was going to go down anyway.

Of course, all of the above is just my opinion, and I'm not an economist, and I'm probably wrong about everything.

[AmishSamurai]

My friend and I had a discussion regarding this. We basically came to the agreement that if a crash happened, that would be even worse for us retro gamers, since then video game companies would become much leaner and try playing it even more safe with their titles, so we'd still probably get even more of Generic Cover-shooter FPS #88,000, and less funding for more creative titles. Of course, I'm of the opinion that there won't be a crash, but there will be a decline of first-person shooters, like fighting games and platformers before it. Friend was calling RPGs as the next big wave thing, I'm saying it will be lower-budget indie games.

[Gunstar Green]

The difference between then, 1984, and now, 2011, is that video games were just viewed as a curiosity. They were toys, they were a passing fad.

Video games are generally accepted as a valid form of entertainment media now. They've become part of the culture.

Sure the market bubble may bust but that happens to all industries. I don't really see a crash in the industry on the same scale as what happened in the 80's.

I mean look at the way games are continuing to sell during these economic hard-times as a barometer of how resilient this industry has become.

There may be an over-saturation of FPS games and such but it's nothing compared to what caused the crash. There's loads of talented developers bringing out great games that aren't going anywhere and if one of them starts sucking there will be somebody else to get people's attention. As it's been stated above when everybody gets sick of FPS they'll latch on to a new genre. The atmosphere is just entirely different these days.