Let's make fun of Pachter

[ZeroAX]

I've always been annoyed by this guy, cause he's basically pulling numbers out of his ass. His "predictions" can at best be good for up to a month ahead, since he doesn't seem to have any real secret info that the rest of the industry doesn't have, he has failed time and time again to predict that something will sell well, unless it's been hyped up like crazy before release, and well..... he gets payed to do what we do for "fun". He reads the game industry's news, and he sells an abridged version to investors.

So when Gamasutra reported his prediction for December's NPD results I saved the link, to see how accurate his predictions really are.

His predictions: http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/3237 ... e_Up_2.php

Real industry numbers: http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/3244 ... r_Year.php

So let's compare these two.
The (P) signifies what he said and the (I) what really happened.

• Xbox 360 sales: 2.5 million (P) / 1.86 million (I)
  Wii sales: 2.6 million (P) / 2.36 million (I)
  PS3 sales: 1.2 million (P) / 1.21 million (I)
  Industry software sales up 5% (P) / Industry software sales down 2% (I)
  DS hardware struggling in retail (P) / 2.5 freaking million (I)
  No mention of Epic Mickey selling well (P) / 1.3 million copies sold (I)

So basically he got 1 thing right, the PS3 sales, but that's probably by accident. Even if he couldn't predict 360 shortages, he should have been able to FREAKING predict that the DS would still outsell all consoles, because like with the PS2, the imminent release of a new console did not instantly drop to 0 the sales of one of the best consoles of all time.

I'll give him not predicting Epic Mickey would sell well, but these predictions are 5 days old, shouldn't he have been able to contact one of his "industry sources" and ask how Epic Mickey did at retail?

But the biggest failure must have been his software sales prediction. FFS man a 7% difference is inexcusable.

[MrPopo]

I guess I've never understood where this guy got his credibility, originally. I see his predictions come up every so often at 1up and every time I'm like "Who is this again?"

[ZeroAX]

I guess I've never understood where this guy got his credibility, originally. I see his predictions come up every so often at 1up and every time I'm like "Who is this again?"

I don't think he has any credibility to speak of. It's just that the industry having "analyst" makes it more sound more like a serious business, I guess. And websites keep quoting him, cause the guy basically keeps throwing out fan bait, to get heated discussions going, which equal many many hits.