Do you think Sony will ever pull ahead this generation?

[PGchris]

I was thinking about buying a PS3 but my roommate of three years is moving out and he's taking his Wii. Now I cant decide which one to buy. How much does a low gig(like 20-40g) backwards compatible ps3 cost?

[Jrecee]

I have trouble believing 50% of households will have blueray players within 3 years. Not even 50% of people have hdtvs right now. You would have to first get the number of people with HD capable tvs to 50%, and then 100% of them would have to adopt bluray. If that's going to happen the price of the discs themselves will have to be the same as dvds. I have an HDTV and have no interest in paying a premium for blurays.

I'm going to throw out some random guesses for what will happen down the line:

This Fall: There's a lot of rumors that a slim ps3 will hit along with a price drop this august. I'm not sure about august, but I would guess that even if a slim version doesn't come out, the price will fall to $299. I would also assume that Microsoft will retaliate with a change in price and product. The Elite will fall to $299 and the current pro will become the new arcade at $199. The current arcade could go on firesale at $149, making it a hell of a deal for the holidays.

2010: PS3 slim will definitely hit by then. A $50 price drop could happen by xmas '10, which would force Nintendo to drop the price of the wii for the first time, probably to $199. Microsoft would probably follow with a drop of the "arcade" model to $149, since they're clearly trying to be the cheapest point of entry for a current gen system.

2011: Dreamcast 2 comes out and puts everyone else out of business.

[dsheinem]

I have trouble believing 50% of households will have blueray players within 3 years. Not even 50% of people have hdtvs right now. You would have to first get the number of people with HD capable tvs to 50%, and then 100% of them would have to adopt bluray. If that's going to happen the price of the discs themselves will have to be the same as dvds. I have an HDTV and have no interest in paying a premium for blurays.

The article I cited didn't say 50% of households - they said Blu-Ray will be 50% of the market (for sales of movies, TV, etc.).

FTA:

“This is all about pricing,” said Alison Casey, Futuresource head of global content. “In 2012, you’ll see entry-level Blu-ray pricing at $50. At that point, Blu-ray will become mass market.”

As the maturing standard-definition DVD market should continue to lose value—down 13% in revenue in the U.S. in 2009, estimates Futuresource—Blu-ray’s momentum will be responsible for stabilizing the category. With Blu-ray software making up 50% of the market in 2012, digital will comprise 29%, split between TV video-on-demand at 16%, online video at 10% and mobile sales at 3%."

[Jrecee]

Ok I see. Still not sure if I buy into it though. Price is definitely the issue though. Like I said, if the players drop in price to where dvd players are now, and the discs do the same, there won't be any reason to buy a dvd over a bluray. But that still only applies to those with the ability to watch them. I see digital distribution as a bigger threat to dvd than bluray.

I don't forsee dvd dissappearing in the next 7 or 8 years though.

[Ack]

On the upside, at least their console works.

I'm looking at you, Microsoft.

Guess what? The general public doesn't seem to care. My friend just toasted his 4th. Still no regrets on his end.

I guess Ack and I are spiteful folks that expect a system to work when you throw a couple hundred bucks at it

Of course, I've never been burned before (still using my launch PS2); maybe I'd be a little more understanding of the 360's hardware woes if I had a bad experience before.

You know what's funny? I feel the same way, just switch up PS2 and 360. Went through 4 PS2's before I said F it, still on my first 360(knock on wood).

I guess at least I can give Microsoft credit that they extended the warranty on their faulty product, Sony had to get sued before they would admit there was a problem.

Yeah, I'm still only on my first PS2, though I've owned 2 360s. The first one developed a malfunctioning drive, so I quit using it. When a roommate's 360 red ringed on him, he gave it to me, and I swapped out the drives since they were the same model. Everything worked perfect until the first 360 red ringed.

Truthfully, before I frankensteined the two together, I tried calling Microsoft to get that one from my friend fixed. I called three times. Each time, promised the same thing: mailing address would be emailed, I just print up the necessary information and everything would be golden. Three times, no email address appeared, no follow up phone calls, nothing. I'd call back and explain what was going on, get apologizes, and then the same crap would happen. So I said "Screw this" and fixed it myself. Now I gotta fix it myself again, hopefully for good. I'm just being lazy, partly because I don't know my way around power drills and drill bits very well, and partly because the idea of taking a power drill to the metal casing to bore bigger holes sounds a little dangerous to me.

[MrPopo]

It looks like the 360 is the best console to own if you like RPGs and that honestly surprises the hell out of me. The PS2 seemed like a new rpg came out every week, but I think the PS3 only has 2 as of now. I am sure the PS3 will catch up though. When Square started giving 360 support I was pretty shocked, and FF13 on the 360 was even more shocking. Of course I don't have time for RPGs anymore so this really doesn't matter to me. Tekken 6 is another Sony only thing that MS came in and stole that surprised me.

The main reason I finally got a 360 was for the RPG exclusives. But take a look down the line. The 360 doesn't have any more RPGs lined up aside from Final Fantasy, while the PS3 is starting to pick up steam in that regard. Demon's Souls, White Knight Chronicles, Tales of Vesperia port (please let it come to the US), and the other Final Fantasy XIII game are all heading to the PS3.

[jfrost]

Ok, here I go pulling the foreigner again.

I think that that Sony won't catch up in the US, but has a good chance of snapping a bigger market share than Microsoft in Europe and poorer regions (and thus selling more worldwide).

I mean, you don't feel this in the US, but the PlayStation brand is still really strong in Europe and South America, not to mention Japan, obviously. If Sony does actually reduce its prices, PS3s will sell like hotcakes.

Speaking for myself, I would never buy a 360. The console has good games, but it has no support in Brazil. Frankly, I wouldn't buy it even if I lived in the US, but at least you guys can send it back to Microsoft for repairs -- and for free. If I bought a 360 and it red-ringed tomorrow, I'd be fucked. I'd have to spend even more trying to find someone to fix it for me, and not for free, naturally. Not to mention that the fucking console costs about 1000 dollars down here.

Now, the PS3 price tag is surely steep, but the hardware is more reliable. That coupled with a strong brand name in other regions give Sony some advantage.

[elvis]

On the upside, at least their console works.

I'm looking at you, Microsoft.

Took the words out of my mouth. I don't give a toss about technical specs. I just want a console that will last a decade without blowing up.

But as others have mentioned, average stupid people don't seem to notice/care, which is annoying.

Pull ahead? No. No one will catch the Wii this generation

The PS3 will never catch up to the 360 or Wii. Its way too late in the game and people already have there impressions of each console.

Lots of "evers" and "nevers" in this thread...

The PS3 was price prohibitive to start with, but prices drop. I really think it's way too early to be calling "evers" and "nevers" at this point in the current generation. XBox 360 is gaining ground on Wii now, and with Natal in the pipeline could well overtake it come 2011.

Crystal ball gazing is fun and all, but nobody has a clue how this generation will pan out.

[RCBH928]

I own 360, I love 360 because I like 360 games+controller is really good.
Yet..
I think everyone that wants an xbox already owns one but a lot are holding on the PS2 waiting for ps3 price drops.
It is easy to know how to make that ps3 sell like crazy.

1)Make it run ps2 titles
2)Make it slim , its fat,ugly, and noisy I guess(like 360)
3)Change the GUI , I do not think it is intuitive and it is confusing, it was for me and I am very computer savvy
4)CUT THE PRICE
5)Bring attention tot he public that it plays Blu-ray and it is a media center, I think a lot do not know about this
6)Leverage the good exclusive games and put them into perspective. A lot of people forgot about COD2 , GOW1, Kameo , Lost planet on the 360 just because they are couple years old. Similar games on ps3 should not be forgotten and always pay attention to them. Just like how they did with Bioshock and Oblivion. They build upon them.

7) Last if you ask me, I think Sony should act stupid and make a mistake to make it possible for the ps3 to be modded and play backups, but they have to make profit on each console sale. This is a huge system seller around the world. A lot are not buying simply because it doesn't run backups!(Wii+360 run backups and their game sales are as healthy as ever)

Plus no one forgets, big system sellers are still not out : GT+God of War!
From what I saw, people are very loyal to the playstation brand and unaware of the xbox.

2011: Dreamcast 2 comes out and puts everyone else out of business.

that was really funny for two reasons
1) Surprising and unexpected
2) Sega will never beat Sony or Microsoft. That is like a cold day in hell

[ZeroAX]

of course PS3 will pull ahead of the 360, but not the wii imo.

Why? Because 360 sells great only in North America and the UK.

Continental Europe, is very price sensitive (that's why we mostly play handhelds. the DS has sold most of it's units in Europe), and a huge Sony fanboy.
When the price finally drops, business will get a lot better for sony. Besides don't forget, they only have a 10million difference, which if I'm not mistaken , is how much the 360 sold during it's first year.