Are video games the next baseball cards?

[Erik_Twice]

On your hypothesis, Dave:

1) Lack of demand for retro games because people move on.

If boardgame fans and hobbyists are any indication, gamers don't seem to move on much. There are many, many gamers that are very old and haven't given up on their hobbies despite being on their 50s or 60s (Eg. Wargamers, arcade fans).

While it's probable people sell their collection at different rates depending on their age, I don't think they really do so at a significant level. I think it's part of the hobby, people "purge" their collections regularly and then build them again differently or simply focus on other areas. Outright abandoning the hobby is rare.

2) Lack of demand for retro games because of high prices. I've seen a lot of you complain about the high costs of the best SNES or Saturn games, the cost obstacles to getting into collecting, the money involved in producing proper picture/sound on modern TVs, etc.

This reminds me of a quote "Nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded!"

I think that retro games are fairly cheap. Perhaps not as cheap as they were back when they were in cleareance and arcades boards sold for fifty bucks, but they are cheap. After all, the vast majority are cheaper than modern games and much, much cheaper than they were on release.

I also think that emulation is the backbone of the hobby, even today, and the guys like you or me with CRTs, big collections and massive knowledge are only the tip of the iceberg. Most people are much more modest, owning a handful of games and emulating the rest.

3) Disc rot, hardware deaths, etc. - I realize that a lot of old hardware has been working for 30-40 years already and that well kept stuff will last longer than poorly kept stuff - but I find it harder and harder to believe that especially disc-based games will still be in good shape in 20 years or so.

Setting aside my thoughts on emulation, I think the future looks very bright in this regard.

From what I know, cartridge-based systems will work for a very long time, none are specially prone to failure and shouldn't be any harder to keep working than the 30 year old stereo amplifier I'm using right now. There are also many alternative solutions, like clonic hardware or emulation.

When it comes to disc-based systems, I think the biggest problem is the Dreamcast. It's less reliable than other consoles and also less common than the Wii or PS2. Forunately, I think most Dreamcast games will eventually be ported without any losses.

I can't ever see a good percentage of the best/most interesting PS3 games selling loose or CIB for $30+ in 10-20 years from now.

Unlike cards, games also get regularly re-released (often in "enhanced" editions). We've seen this impact values of stuff like Ico and Shadow of the Collossus, for example...and I think those kinds of trends will continue...

I think all games that will hold any sort of value will all be younger than the Dreamcast, with a handful of exceptions. And I don't think they'll be very expensive exceptions.

As far as re-releases go, I think gaming will continue to struggle with backwards attitudes towards emulation, game preservation and back catalogue for at least a decade. What we all need is the video game equivalent of the Criterion Collection, a "definitive", top-quality way of enjoying old games. But companies, specially Nintendo, will insist in doing their own ports and they'll inevitably not be up to par.

I just wish M2 made ports of every single retrogame and published them for PC. But they won't

[Anayo]

If video games lose their value like baseball cards, then I welcome it. That means more for me.

[samsonlonghair]

If video games lose their value like baseball cards, then I welcome it. That means more for me.

I like the way you think. This was never an investment for me. I buy up old games because I like them.

I feel the same way about old comic books. I'm glad the market crashed on those old 90s rags. Now I can buy up any old 90s comic book I care to read.

[Tanooki]

Same here which is why I'm so put off by it now. All the garbage going on has ruined something that used to be fun and affordable to experiment with an enjoy, and if not, oh well, out a cheeseburger value meal in price. Can't do that anymore, experimenting has to be done using emulation or flash kits, sucks the fun of the discovery side of the hunt out of things entirely. Now in comparison to the value meal poke, it's like if you want to keep going at it without adjustment, you're out a night at a place that has valet parking to test the waters which is insane.

I welcome when his 3 point ideas comingle and cause people to treat them like cards, comics, beanie babies and the rest and leave the worst offenders stuck with thousands of product that was worth tens of thousands and now worth 10% of that and they lose dearly for it. It would be the only justice on people like that, destroying their financial stability. Don't see too many baseball card, comic, and beanie baby shops on every corner anymore now do you?

[Fragems]

I welcome when his 3 point ideas comingle and cause people to treat them like cards, comics, beanie babies and the rest and leave the worst offenders stuck with thousands of product that was worth tens of thousands and now worth 10% of that and they lose dearly for it. It would be the only justice on people like that, destroying their financial stability.

That seems a little harsh. I'm not saying buying games as an investment is smart or anything, but I don't despise resellers either unless they are complete asses about it.

The only games that are really all that high are the super popular or niche titles. Hell even going into a overpriced resellers stall 90+% of the games including those on the NES, SNES, Genesis, and etc. are going to be sub $10 most will be sub $5 unless they are really nuts on their pricing. I feel like people get way to focused on the $100+ dollar games and overlook the vast variety of cheap titles. Sure there are exceptions like the Saturn and Sega CD where there is almost no inventory left in the wild so prices are freaking ridiculous but otherwise this is a rather inexpensive hobby.

[MrPopo]

I welcome when his 3 point ideas comingle and cause people to treat them like cards, comics, beanie babies and the rest and leave the worst offenders stuck with thousands of product that was worth tens of thousands and now worth 10% of that and they lose dearly for it. It would be the only justice on people like that, destroying their financial stability.

That seems a little harsh. I'm not saying buying games as an investment is smart or anything, but I don't despise resellers either unless they are complete asses about it.

Tanooki has a well known disdain for people who charge more than he thinks a game is worth. And since his notion of a game's worth is stuck in the late 90's/early 2000's for an SNES game it means he hates all resellers.

[Ack]

Tanooki has a well known disdain for people who charge more than he thinks a game is worth. And since his notion of a game's worth is stuck in the late 90's/early 2000's for an SNES game it means he hates all resellers.

Unless he's selling it, in which case it gets the modern price.

[retrosportsgamer]

This is a real interesting conversation and comparison when looking at market conditions and the sustainability around a boom in a hobby that has a collecting avenue. I wrote a bunch more than noise's initial first reply, but can't seem to frame it without repeating or running long.

The article Dave linked is well worth a read. I recently threw out boxes of my cards that are now worthless. I'll echo the reasons around the card crash and add-in that the internet really showed how much supply there was (and no one is nostalgic for the 1988 Topps Traded set).

I can see a declining demand for games and a bust in pricing because of a number of reasons:

- This generation of games discounts faster than any before. The reliance on online play and people moving to the newest game, leaving replayability hampered. Outside of limited collector's editions or very niche titles, there's never going to be a supply issue.

- The clear move to digital, and this isn't solely young people. I've listened to podcasts where seasoned (industry) hosts have moved away from physical. You have digital-only games taking up more of a market share than ever before (and growing). Consumption habits have changed, and it isn't just millennials.

- Ease of emulation gets even easier (and available in more ways) and the micro-niche of gamers who want to play on the original hardware grows smaller and smaller.

At the end of the day, supply and demand reigns - but all the reasons above do point to a demand issue and a bubble bursting. It's not going to be overnight for those people sitting on a cache of rare NES games or whatever, but it will happen.

[Fragems]

I just feel like aside from a handful of titles the 6th generation games and onwards are going to end up in the same boat as the Atari 2600. There will a period where they are utterly worthless but they will eventually work their way up to $2-3 a pop after some of the larger retailers and resellers flush their inventories. Many of the games were simply overproduced and the demand has died off as new games, rereleases, and etc. have presented themselves. About the only thing that will prop prices up for modern games as they slowly age is story driven games, nostalgia, or unique game play.

I feel like everything 5th gen and prior for the most part is pretty firmly going to stay at it's current price level or continue climbing since I don't see the market ever getting flooded with them again.

Really if your into collecting I recommend riding the lows each console experiences a collapse in their individual market at some point or another. If your into games for the game play there is currently a buffet of cheap but good games out there for the PS2, Xbox, 360, PS3, Wii, GB, Game Gear, GBA, DS, and etc.

[stickem]

Another thing to consider. At least me, I put my cards in the sleeves or hard back cases and stored them away. Every few months I flipped through the binders checking values but for the most part they were put up. Retro games are a little different, it's a physical media where you actually do something with it. At least that's my take. But I agree with all those above. Supply /demand rules all.