Are video games the next baseball cards?

[Fragems]

Scarcity is a big factor in game value so I figure most of the Sixth Gen and onward games that got massive print runs will eventually end up like the Atari 2600 market which is so saturated that most games are worth next to nothing. About the only thing that will keep prices up are story driven games, low print run games, and games getting damaged/destroyed.

Also due to the popularity of rereleases/compilations prices for a lot of the more popular titles are going to most likely stay low indefinitely.

Sadly a lot of the releases from the last gen or two will be paper weights given either A.) their poor performance without patches or B.) their requirement to maintain an internet connection. Kind of a similar scenario to Phantasy Star Online for the Xbox which while playable single player is utterly worthless to anyone who doesn't have an original XBL account tied to their system or memory card since character creation isn't possible without it and the Xbox lost support ages ago so making an account is impossible now .

[noiseredux]

Maybe GOG.com will expand to console emulation or something.

I don't think it would shock me. Remember when SNK sold that Humble Bundle that had a bunch of Neo Geo games that were just in a wrapper? I could picture GOG (or DotEmu, or someone) working out similar deals with retro console publishers to sell their old console games in an wrapper - not exactly unlike what GOG (and Steam) does with DOSBox games.

[Sarge]

And of course, Sega's been on that train for a while now, at least on Steam.

[Erik_Twice]

I agree with Mr Popo. Video games are very different from baseball cards as a commodity, enough so as to make comparisons highly fallacious. But beyond that, I don't think a "collapse" or "crash" is the most likely way of decline.

The way I see it, this is how and why the prices of retro games have changed over time:

1) Original games run into obsolescene. Prices drop as the product ends its original life cycle.
2) Stock is cleared, leading to extremely cheap prices and plentiful second hand opportunities. Old games are seen as worthless and no distinction is made between different titles

Big one: Emulation becomes solidified.

This took place in the early 2000s, games were extremely cheap back then. People were buying full arcade cabinets in cleareance for 50$ or less because they were seen as bulky garbage.

I think that, culturally, many gamers still think of these prices as what should be "normal".

3) Perception of retro games' value and quality turn around. They begin to be seen as having intrinsic value, retro gaming communities as we know form and opinions shift. First "guides" pop up.

I think this era is when many of us got into retro gaming or got serious about it.

4) Members of retro gaming communities get older, get jobs and can afford to invest more into their hobbies. Moderately experienced members move onto more hardcore stuff, increasing prices. Retro games hit big in the gaming mainstream, bringing new retro game fans. Content about retro gaming becomes big

This is where we are now though we are moving into a new era where people are very organized, to the point of seeking increasingly involved areas of the hobby (Professional CRTs, for example) and even creating specific hardware and software (OSSC, CRT_Emudriver, MAME variants, etc.)

I think this is very different than baseball cards which were simply printed in enormous quantities and which have no appeal beyond an extreme, dying niche. I mean, it's a niche inside a niche, it's not just people who collect baseball cards, it's people who collect baseball cards that feature people who haven't been in the sport in decades.

Your hypothesis are a bit more complex so I'm going to reply on the post below

[alienjesus]

One thing video games have for them that baseball cards probably don't - they're constantly in the spotlight somewhere.

Now I don't know much about baseball cards, being that I'm British and we think baseball sucks, but I imagine a lot of the appeal is having all the players of a team you liked as a kid, or a winning squad or whatever. How many kids today, eve those into Baseball, know who those players are. And how many adults today, even those who were into baseball at he time, would remember all the players, or would regularly be reminded of them?

On the other hand, retro video games are constantly in the spotlight in the media, especially internet media such as Youtube and social channels. Games from the same series are constantly coming out and reminding people of the games they played as a child. Or, the game comes out as a remake, or port, or on digital services and people think 'oh hey, I'd like to own the original version of that'. Sure, there are rises and falls, especially around the realease of a new game in the series, but there is something there calling attention to the series. Heck, from what I could see the increase in prices for retro games started around the time things like Youtube started getting popular, and rose quickly from there.

Some of the cheapest retro games nowadays I find, are from games that were pretty popular at the time, but now aren't talked about a lot. On the other hand, stuff that is in popular, well documented series (esoecially Nintendo stuff) sells regularly for more than you would expect considering the sheer number of cartridges out there.

You mentioned supply and demand on the baseball cards. I think the key difference with video games is that the demand is more consistent, because people are more frequently being reminded of them.

[stickem]

i don't think retro games have anything to worry about like the baseball card crash. i was one of the kids that spent every allowance and paychecks on cards in the late 80's and 90's. i kinda blame the crash on upperdeck and beckett. as soon as a price guide was established it brought out collectors and the card companies flooding the market with expensive packs that weren't all that rare. as soon as those high gloss cards and limited edition inserts strated, it dropped everything else in value. people held on to these cards that were mass produced, unlike video games where when the next generation hits, out with the old. plus throw in the fact that the mlb is isn't as popular as it once was, well video games have always been popular. i think it's a bad comparison anyway. i'd compare the cards to the beenie baby fad. He'll I still remember walking into a dollar store seeing grab boxes of bball cards in grab bags from the ninties being for sale. You can't do that with retro games.

[Tanooki]

Addressing just the first post. I made the accident of making a similar post like this more than once on NintendoAge and got my head bit off by the collectard contingent. But it can't be just a coincidence I said this years ago, you're saying it now, and many others are too. Nor could it be those saying it are either clinging to what they got or saying fuck it and getting rid of most/all of it and giving up all together or getting secondary means that aren't a flaming ripoff and a headache to deal with.

It's not just cards, the same period comics had the same mechanics happen too. I was there and had both those pulled out from under me as well with the same tactics going on now online with games, just offline with pop up stores everywhere and many think phonebook sized price guides instead. You can only take a medium whatever it is so far and drive the prices up the flag pole before people get angry and quit from rage or lack of willingness to put up with the people and blowing that kind of money on it. That's what happened with the cards and comics, everyone wanted a piece, many more who had no clue unless they read up on it to be informed to sell. That's where games are now. It's causing people to move on because of that, or just more important things in life. Got a kid, house, car, limited free time? Games take a back seat, add in the abuses and why the hell bother?

People will move on for whatever reason from price, to predators, to more important crap in life. Games are pushing up against that wall now, just depends when the cracks finally widen and knock it down. But you make a good added point, cards and comics can fade, but they don't just up and eat it -- discs and chips do (bit/disc rot.) It's another one of those why the hell bother factors when a ROM and a computer will never fade, it just gets transferred. Enjoy the medium with a minimal price dent to the wallet (investment in the computer, net services, and maybe a storage device at best.)

You're right the rotting of the goods will consume interest as then it will cause those other factors to jack it up even worse in price scaring even more off. If it even lasts that long though, prices are already offending a lot of people into being quitters, choosey, or going with free routes (ROMs on some medium.) It WILL happen, it's not a matter of IF at all, just WHEN. Those in denial I'll be there to laugh.

[stickem]

You may be right. The market might crash when the generation or 2 into the retro scene passes. But roms have been around forever so I don't think that will have anything to do with it though imho.

[CRTGAMER]

The games market is so saturated, it is surprising how many Retro games still are pricey. Anticipate a plummet in prices as each new generation console comes out. The older games one saving grace of "collectable" is that many modern games are in digital format. One day the kids will be in shock that we actually played games off a disc which came with hard copy paper manuals! Ah, the good old days!

I was in Gamestop today which had a video of the Last Guardian scheduled for the PS4. I mention this noting how PS2 Ico plummeted drastically in price maybe due to the PS3 HD Ico/Shadow Colossus remake. Now with the Guardian game finally coming out (oh why not on the PS2/PS3!?) maybe the first game (Ico) in the "series" might go back up in price?

Of note, that Last Guardian video demo had a fog blur about it, certainly alluding to PS3 and maybe even PS2 graphic level. Though the giant guardian did have high frame rate moves of the PS3 Shadow Colossus.

[Fragems]

About the only thing that I think could cause a crash is once the software/hardware starts failing in mass.