General_Norris wrote:
It should also be pointed that the arcade games that "died" did not have such controllers and the games with steering wheels, musical instruments and light guns are the biggest money makers.
Now, the drop in quality matters to us and to the gamer. But the market of, dare I say, casuals is growing very fast and such people probably won't care, at all, about quality. This will PROPORTIONALLY reduce the market consoles have in the same vein that Farmville sells more than Quake Live.
It wasn't just some games that died, while the ones with specialized controllers didn't. The likelihood is that the surviving arcades are still there (in a niche) precisely because they rely on the specialty controllers that can't be replicated on a "good enough" level at home. As light guns appear to be good enough at home now, that must be dance pads (the home versions are flimsy) and dedicated racing controls (not just wheels, but wheels, gear sticks and pedals). Note also that before the arcade "died", even within the arcade pinball "died" and gave way to videogames.
I think this is indeed pretty comparable to how people still go to theaters to see some movies where you get significantly better experience there from the big screen etc. (e.g. 3D ones, although that didn't seem to catch on). But how much more content is made for TVs only, and think also how much of the content made for theaters would actually be made if it wasn't also going to make a significant money from TV viewers (DVD releases, subscription TV, subsidized by advertising).
The main point is that if the market share on dedicated console games drops significantly, companies won't be willing to invest into it.
Sony used PS3 partly as a way to push blu-ray over HD-DVD, will the PS4 serve a similar purpose? I also don't think it is a coincidence that they insist on using proprietary stuff on their handhelds.
Microsoft may consider not going for a next Xbox. They keep trying to get PC alternatives like "Games for Windows" - it hasn't stuck yet but who knows. I think they always had a longer-term plan in mind of transitioning people out of consoles, even the Xbox was basically a PC. Windows 8 is clearly in a direction of letting the user run the same stuff in your PC, tablet and mobile phone.
Otherwise, those gaming divisions are bleeding money, so you better hope they are getting some indirect benefits from them if you want them to go on.
Nintendo is going for the Wii U with its own "tablet", and it should be somewhat clear that they are not competing with Microsoft and Sony, but with Google and Apple (those are not two companies who you want as your rivals, particularly on top of Microsoft if they stick around the console market for another generation).
Steam provides a "consolized", consolidated experience without dedicated hardware.
I don't think anyone is saying there won't be niche markets in gaming (recent examples in Shmups). The indie scene will make whatever they feel like making caring less about market shares and so on. But if you care about certain types of high-production values games (and that is not just FPSs, Nintendo 1st party stuff also has high production values) that are not freemium and want to be sold for more than 1 USD per copy, I think there are reasons to be worried.
I'm not worried because there are enough games *currently* to last me for my lifetime (and the Wii U will bring at least one generation more of Nintendo's titles).
But people that don't care about old games and would like a constant stream of those kind of games may be in for disappointment together with an avalanche of Social games.
Think about it this way: if you cared about arcade games today, how many new arcade games are getting developed nowadays?
Ivo.
