21st Century Video Game Crash?

[pierrot]

^Don't want to put words in anyone's mouth, but I believe he's drawing some comparisons between those gaming climates and that of today's in order to show a trend that could potentially lead to another similar scenario.

Again, the crash of the late 70s was not analogous to the crash of the early 80s was not analagous to the death of 3DO, Jaguar, etc. was not analagous to the death of Sega as a hardware manufacturer, etc. In each case there were myriad economic realities that made the situation unique. Trying to draw analogies between any of those eras and the one we're in right now is not only a misappropriation of history, but also a misunderstanding of the current industry's economics.

I don't entirely agree or disagree with anything stated, but even from your post in the other thread, the downward sloping trend of physical retail sales does nothing to discredit the idea that the modern console market is potentially hazardous, fiscally, for those in the market or who would try to enter the market. I don't believe that there's anything that says another crash would be eventual, but the climate does appear to be less stable.

Just because the environment is different does not make the results or potential any less likely to happen.

Are you saying that even though the environment is different it doesn't mean the outcome is likely to be different? That doesn't make any sense.

Again, not to put words in anyone's mouth, but it appears to me that SirPsycho is saying that you can't deem a crash entirely impossible simply because the environments are different.

[dsheinem]

^Don't want to put words in anyone's mouth, but I believe he's drawing some comparisons between those gaming climates and that of today's in order to show a trend that could potentially lead to another similar scenario.

Again, the crash of the late 70s was not analogous to the crash of the early 80s was not analagous to the death of 3DO, Jaguar, etc. was not analagous to the death of Sega as a hardware manufacturer, etc. In each case there were myriad economic realities that made the situation unique. Trying to draw analogies between any of those eras and the one we're in right now is not only a misappropriation of history, but also a misunderstanding of the current industry's economics.

I don't entirely agree or disagree with anything stated, but even from your post in the other thread, the downward sloping trend of physical retail sales does nothing to discredit the idea that the modern console market is potentially hazardous, fiscally, for those in the market or who would try to enter the market. I don't believe that there's anything that says another crash would be eventual, but the climate does appear to be less stable.

Except that NPD numbers do nothing to account for digital console sales, which are of increasing frequency. Hardware sales continue to be strong - there were 20 million 360s sold in 2012 (making in excess of 70 million total), PS3 also hit the 75 million mark in 2012 (selling about 20 million consoles) and even the Wii sold roughly 5 million consoles last year (and is over the 100 million mark worldwide). Compared to previous generations, that is insane. The Xbox, Gamecube, and PS2 collectively sold close to 200million cosnsoles Worldwide. The generations before that - the numbers get even smaller.

So console hardware sales - in the long view - are up. There may be a recent and slight drop off due to impending announcements about a new generation looming, but by no means is the console market one with big red warning signs. How you make money on consoles might change to a digital model, production practices may change as a result, but AGAIN: NO CRASH IS IN SIGHT.

[SirPsycho]

Except that NPD numbers do nothing to account for digital console sales, which are of increasing frequency. Hardware sales continue to be strong - there were 20 million 360s sold in 2012 (making in excess of 70 million total), PS3 also hit the 75 million mark in 2012 (selling about 20 million consoles) and even the Wii sold roughly 5 million consoles last year (and is over the 100 million mark worldwide). Compared to previous generations, that is insane. The Xbox, Gamecube, and PS2 collectively sold close to 200million cosnsoles Worldwide. The generations before that - the numbers get even smaller.

So console hardware sales - in the long view - are up. There may be a recent and slight drop off due to impending announcements about a new generation looming, but by no means is the console market one with big red warning signs. How you make money on consoles might change to a digital model, production practices may change as a result, but AGAIN: NO CRASH IS IN SIGHT.

The crash I see possibly happening is not the totality of home console market. Maybe the bad press around Sony and its own bureaucratic purgatory will force the entire company down. Maybe MS's next console flops due to them waiting too long to even say anything, instead trying to react to everything around them and then release a final product. Perhaps the Steam Box actually catches on, selling millions and really hurting one of the other companies.

What I do see happening is Facebook going down over time. It could be next year or 5 years from now, but it will happen. I could even see people eventually getting tired of gaming on a smartphone with a small screen and bad controls, instead opting to upgrade for a game specific machine like a 3DS or Vita.

I like to at least try and harbor some discussion from my writing, I usually leave it open ended as a result. It might be finally starting to work.

[pierrot]

Except that NPD numbers do nothing to account for digital console sales, which are of increasing frequency. Hardware sales continue to be strong - there were 20 million 360s sold in 2012 (making in excess of 70 million total), PS3 also hit the 75 million mark in 2012 (selling about 20 million consoles) and even the Wii sold roughly 5 million consoles last year (and is over the 100 million mark worldwide). Compared to previous generations, that is insane. The Xbox, Gamecube, and PS2 collectively sold close to 200million cosnsoles Worldwide. The generations before that - the numbers get even smaller.

So console hardware sales - in the long view - are up. There may be a recent and slight drop off due to impending announcements about a new generation looming, but by no means is the console market one with big red warning signs. How you make money on consoles might change to a digital model, production practices may change as a result, but AGAIN: NO CRASH IS IN SIGHT.

physical retail sales

Right, digital sales are not accounted for, but there's also the problem of how those digital sales break down, and I'd be willing to bet that most of it is in the iOS/android and PC columns.

None of the big three today are running business models in which their console sales would noticeably affect their bottom line. You would think that these companies would react to the changing face of retail consumerism in gaming, but the face of gaming has been changing since tablets and smart phones entered the arena. Some longstanding developers have folded outright, while other once strong console supporting developers have entertained the idea of shifting exclusively to the more accessible handheld market for developing games. None of this intrinsically spells an immanent crash, nor does it discredit the possibility.

[Erik_Twice]

Obviously companies like Zynga will crash. They expect to or they wouldn't have had an army of profesional massagers for their employees. Someone is taking a golden parachute, if they already haven't.

Maybe the bad press around Sony and its own bureaucratic purgatory will force the entire company down.

My good man, you can't go around saying this stuff and not expect to be taken as silly.

You are presenting the idea that of one of the biggest, leading, more important companies in electronics, which dabbles in games, cinema, music and finances will be completely closed down because of paperwork and bad press. Without any backing. Like that.

[SirPsycho]

Maybe the bad press around Sony and its own bureaucratic purgatory will force the entire company down.

My good man, you can't go around saying this stuff and not expect to be taken as silly.

You are presenting the idea that of one of the biggest, leading, more important companies in electronics, which dabbles in games, cinema, music and finances will be completely closed down because of paperwork and bad press. Without any backing. Like that.

Well the CEO does have to spend 8 months of every year learning about what companies Sony owns and operates. Hell they've sued themselves on multiple occasions because of their horrendous red tape that would make a lot of governments blush.

[flojocabron]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKI-tD0L18A&feature=youtube_gdata_player

There's too much money involved this time to have another crash.

Thirty years ago, the gaming industry was nothing compared to what it is now.

Back then, there weren't as many gamers, many then still didn't know about computers.

There are now many gainful jobs employed through many different aspects of the videogame industry. Back then it was a labor of love, in small cottage industries making simple games.

Also the same thing happens whenever a new generation comes around. There's a reluctance to buy a new product since the 'one I have is working fine' or 'I just bought it, why are you making me upgrade?'

There's plenty of small reasonable complaints, but without changes, theres no innovation.

maybe because we are In A retrogames forum, we have a harder time accepting a change in tech?

some people claim to see that ps3/360 is already showing its age. And others fear that there will be no difference in graphics in this next gen.

But all of us here definitely know the differences when nes became SNES, and the big changes between ps1 and ps2 games.

[AppleQueso]

The numbers Dish posted, even with sales in a physical sales currently in a slump, the "low" 2012 physical sales numbers are still higher than the entire period of 2002-2006. Nobody would call that period unhealthy for games.

It's also not counting digital releases as well, so the market is probably even healthier. You can't tell me that steam, psn, xbla, virtual console/wiiware/eshop sales are an insignificant number.

Dish keeps pointing this out over and over.

[Gamerforlife]

Honestly, I wish a video game crash really would happen. It would be something new and I'm the sort of guy who get bored when everything is status quo. I think it would be fascinating to see how the industry would bounce back if such a thing happened, and how gamers would react to it. Sometimes it's fun and interesting to see what people do in a time of crisis.

[AppleQueso]

Honestly, I wish a video game crash really would happen. It would be something new and I'm the sort of guy who get bored when everything is status quo. I think it would be fascinating to see how the industry would bounce back if such a thing happened, and how gamers would react to it. Sometimes it's fun and interesting to see what people do in a time of crisis.

Eh, we're entering a new generation. Things change then anyway.

I think the only reason it feels so "status quo" right now is because the current generation has been really prolonged.