Game Consoles Are Dying: A GDC Talk

[MrPopo]

I haven't watched yet, but I can say this:

-if companies do put DRM into games that prevents them from being played on more than one console (destroying used game sales and game trading), it WILL kill physical game media and game consoles along with it. These actions are basically suicide by the companies that do them.

I don't understand this argument at all. For there to be a used game market there must be people who buy new games. Those are the only people who support the industry in the first place.

People who buy used games will also buy new games, so I really do not think your point is as black and white as you made it out to be. I buy new games occasionally, but I cannot afford most of my games to cost $60 or so. If new gaming consoles require me to buy new games, or pay a $20 or $30 or so fee online to activate a used game I bought, what's the point? I simply cannot afford to enjoy a new generation of games in this way, and I highly suspect I am not even close to being alone. That's the case even if game prices go down to $40-50. So, that leaves me with two options; retro only or buy my modern games as downloadables that are affordable.

You're painting it just as black and white. You seem to be saying that if you can't resell your games you wouldn't buy any at all, or if you can't get games for $30 you wouldn't purchase them. Why can't you simply purchase less games, but spend the same overall budget?

[Breetai]

I also have to ask, yeah, if consoles are why arcades went dead, why are they still so big in Japan? Bad, bad, bad, I really hate misconceptions in this topic (as you can tell )

I hate people posting ignorantly.

But really, arcades ARE dying in Japan. Yeah, they are still fairly popular, but they really are closing all over the place. They are not "so big" anymore. Go into an arcade in Japan, and the main floor space is often dominated by UFO machines and photo booths. New games are becoming less and less frequent. There used to be a couple game centers near each side of a train station. Now there might be one total.

Still on Japan.... just five or so years ago, on the trains/subways, you would see a few DS systems and PSP being played one on each busy train car. Now? Good luck. It's all various types of mobile devices. Maybe the odd Nintendo or Sony system.

This really is reality.

You're painting it just as black and white. You seem to be saying that if you can't resell your games you wouldn't buy any at all, or if you can't get games for $30 you wouldn't purchase them. Why can't you simply purchase less games, but spend the same overall budget?

No, I did not say I wouldn't buy any at all. I said I would change the way in which I bought them (retro or cheaper downloadable, instead of only being able to buy new physical games)

Why should I submit to unfair to the consumer business practices by purchasing less on the same budget when there are other options?

[Erik_Twice]

But really, arcades ARE dying in Japan. Yeah, they are still fairly popular, but they really are closing all over the place. They are not "so big" anymore.

Oh, I know, what I mean is that they are very big as of now when in the western world
they aren't. For someone who thinks arcades died by 1998, that's mind-blowing.

The lack of games is a very big problem, many companies shot themselves on the foot with their arcade releases and it hurt the whole industry.

[Phades]

Game prices on mobile devices are a small fraction of what they are on other platforms. I honestly think that this is the key factor here above all else and something that the "old world" players need to realize.

One of the best examples is Dungeon Hunter. On iOS you can pick it up for $1. On PS3 it's $12.99. On Vita it's $39.99. This is an example of where Sony has failed and immediately allowed their new portable to be seen in a negative light.

Even if you remove the Vita from the picture as an example of a publisher doing a cash grab (Ubisoft... you jerks), the comparison between iOS and PS3 is pretty huge.

When I think of the money I spend during Steam sales on games that I bought because they were cheap but I never play, I can't believe that the console companies aren't trying to take advantage of that impulse market. Do you want to sell 1 million copies of a $60 game, or 10 million copies of a $10 game? I'd love to see a company try this approach with a AAA console game.

[MrPopo]

Game prices on mobile devices are a small fraction of what they are on other platforms. I honestly think that this is the key factor here above all else and something that the "old world" players need to realize.

One of the best examples is Dungeon Hunter. On iOS you can pick it up for $1. On PS3 it's $12.99. On Vita it's $39.99. This is an example of where Sony has failed and immediately allowed their new portable to be seen in a negative light.

Even if you remove the Vita from the picture as an example of a publisher doing a cash grab (Ubisoft... you jerks), the comparison between iOS and PS3 is pretty huge.

When I think of the money I spend during Steam sales on games that I bought because they were cheap but I never play, I can't believe that the console companies aren't trying to take advantage of that impulse market. Do you want to sell 1 million copies of a $60 game, or 10 million copies of a $10 game? I'd love to see a company try this approach with a AAA console game.

iOS doesn't have to deal with manufacturing costs and fixed dollar value licensing costs. There's a minimum level you have to sell a physical game at in order to make money per unit.

No, I did not say I wouldn't buy any at all. I said I would change the way in which I bought them (retro or cheaper downloadable, instead of only being able to buy new physical games)

Downloadable is fine, the companies like it because they make more per unit since it cuts out manufacturing costs. If you switch exclusively to retro that just tells me that you aren't actually that interested in new games.

[o.pwuaioc]

Downloadable is fine, the companies like it because they make more per unit since it cuts out manufacturing costs. If you switch exclusively to retro that just tells me that you aren't actually that interested in new games.

One thing you're overlooking is that the very price of the console itself becomes unworth it to buy if the library for it becomes too expensive. That might make Microsoft and Sony shrug their shoulders, but as Breetai said, people who buy used games often also buy new ones.

It's not that complicated.

[fastbilly1]

One of the best examples is Dungeon Hunter. On iOS you can pick it up for $1. On PS3 it's $12.99. On Vita it's $39.99. This is an example of where Sony has failed and immediately allowed their new portable to be seen in a negative light.

See that is the thing that never makes sense to me.

[J T]

ACK@!!! Humongous post deleted!


Basically it's this:

Transitions from movies to TV and from arcades to consoles have the additional aspect of moving from public spaces to private spaces. That is not happening with mobile device. We are moving from a private space to a portable private space. The game industry has already done this.

Mobile devices are also moving from a dedicated gaming machine to a multifunctional device that does gaming as one of many functions. The game industry has always had this option with PCs.

What is new here is the combination of a private, portable, and multifunctional machine that can provide gaming.

The split between the casual and hardcore market is what's really pulling this apart. Traditionally, a console covered the needs of both the casual and the hardcore market. The PC has a piece of the casual market pie (particularly with Free Cell/Minesweeper), but anything requiring a graphics card that goes beyond the what is built-in to an off-the-shelf PC would not have the casuals on board. Consoles benefitted from this because if casual players wanted to play, consoles were easier to use and they were the only option. With mobile devices, casual players have an easy-to-use device that does not require the knowledge of a PC, and does not require spending additional money to have a dedicated gaming machine. The casual market is more likely to take a "good enough" approach to gaming, and in fact may even prefer games that DON'T have challenging gameplay, demanding strategy, or gruesomely realistic graphics. It doesn't make sense for those people to buy a dedicated console when their phone can play games too.

Sadly for the hardcore gamer set though, this means that the hefty dollars of the casual market are no longer being fed into their gaming machines. They've gone elsewhere, so now we are likely to have a harder time seeing big budget titles on big budget machines. I actually think we may even see a resurgence in PC gaming instead of a new successful console generation. I think that the hardcore crowd has always had a home on the PC, and if the consoles can't afford to keep being made, then the PC will still be here waiting for their return.

[Flake]

I feel uncomfortable including Nintendo in this discussion without a few caveats. Nintendo's greatest strength is a stable of IP's that people will buy if only for the sake of buying. Slap 'Mario' on a game and it will sell a couple million. Same with Zelda and, to a lesser degree, Metroid, Donkey Kong, Kirby, etc.

As these IP's are exclusive only to Nintendo, I have to wonder how Nintendo's fate would differ from the gaming components of Sony and Microsoft who largely depend on 3rd party titles which do not depend on hardware brand loyalty.

This man makes some good points but I do not think the future outcome is so cut and dry.

[Phades]

iOS doesn't have to deal with manufacturing costs and fixed dollar value licensing costs. There's a minimum level you have to sell a physical game at in order to make money per unit.

The consumers don't really care about the story of how they get it to market. They care about the fact that I can pay $1 on my iPhone and $40 on my Vita. That's what they're up against. The logistics of "why" don't really matter.