Game Consoles Are Dying: A GDC Talk

[dsheinem]

The argument made in the video has nothing to do with DRM, used game sales, etc. Let's not have that particular discussion here, and instead try to engage the argument on its own terms.

For example, I was especially struck by the comparisons he made between today and the death of the arcade/ the introduction of Sony and MS into the industry...I am still contemplating to what extent that analogy holds up...

[BoneSnapDeez]

I haven't watched yet, but I can say this:

-if companies do put DRM into games that prevents them from being played on more than one console (destroying used game sales and game trading), it WILL kill physical game media and game consoles along with it. These actions are basically suicide by the companies that do them.

I don't understand this argument at all. For there to be a used game market there must be people who buy new games. Those are the only people who support the industry in the first place.

Slightly OT... but I wonder how many people buy a new console (or receive one for a gift or whatever), but then buy the vast majority of their games used (ie: cheap ones from GameStop). I bought my PS2 new, but 64 of my 69 games are used.

[jfrost]

I had no idea the gaming companies were bleeding money like they seem to be. People on the internet like to say that Nintendo prints money with whatever they do, but the data presented on the video says otherwise.

Particularly, I'm convinced that consoles won't be at the forefront of gaming for much longer. I honestly welcome this. As someone else said, maybe this will mean more convergence, that games will get detached from platforms, like the content producers detached from movie theaters with the rise of TV (as explained in the presentation).

[Menegrothx]

wouldnt it be great if you could play every game ever released on your PC? all you would need is a USB connection of your favorite controller and your off!

Cant you already do that with DOSBox, emulators and various ROM download and torrent sites?

[Stark]

For example, I was especially struck by the comparisons he made between today and the death of the arcade/ the introduction of Sony and MS into the industry...I am still contemplating to what extent that analogy holds up...

I also wonder if experience will have anything to with it as well? I remember seeing the transition from arcade to console and remember the point when I thought that the home experience was better then going to the arcade, same with theater versus watching a movie at home. Do we have to get to the point where we feel that the experience of playing on a iOS/Android device is better than the experience on a major gaming platform? I for one, feel like that will never be, as long as a touch interface is the primary control method.

[Breetai]

I haven't watched yet, but I can say this:

-if companies do put DRM into games that prevents them from being played on more than one console (destroying used game sales and game trading), it WILL kill physical game media and game consoles along with it. These actions are basically suicide by the companies that do them.

I don't understand this argument at all. For there to be a used game market there must be people who buy new games. Those are the only people who support the industry in the first place.

People who buy used games will also buy new games, so I really do not think your point is as black and white as you made it out to be. I buy new games occasionally, but I cannot afford most of my games to cost $60 or so. If new gaming consoles require me to buy new games, or pay a $20 or $30 or so fee online to activate a used game I bought, what's the point? I simply cannot afford to enjoy a new generation of games in this way, and I highly suspect I am not even close to being alone. That's the case even if game prices go down to $40-50. So, that leaves me with two options; retro only or buy my modern games as downloadables that are affordable.

Retro only: I might do this for the most part (for a while), and a few others as well, but this will be a vast minority.

Digital Distribution: If companies do go the DRM route to stop used sales, this will effectively kill game consoles (as defined in the video that I have now watched). Most gamers will buy their games in this way, as they aren't going to cost $40-60 a pop in most cases. The current prices of a one-two year old used game ($20-40) could very well be the digital price of a AAA title, and $1-10 being the cost of the Angry Birds/Super Stardust HD type of game. This is already happening, but, after watching the video, it does seem very plausible that this is the way of the future. Companies like Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo obviously know this and have been trying to meet the future with things like XBL and PSN.

I guess the question is when will traditional game consoles die? Is the Wii U/PS4/XB720 generation the last? Will all three companies (at least their console gaming sectors) come through it, or will one or more of them go the Sega route and get out of the console hardware business? Maybe Sony should have focused on the PS Vita, making it compatible with downloadable PS3 games and included HDMI out for TV hook-up. Maybe that's essentially what the PS5 will be if they make it that far?

The argument made in the video has nothing to do with DRM, used game sales, etc. Let's not have that particular discussion here, and instead try to engage the argument on its own terms.

Those things have everything to do with the video. If the premise is correct, and I would agree that it probably is, things like DRM to stop used game sales are a direct response to the loss of revenue from this paradigm shift in the industry.

[o.pwuaioc]

I was sorely disappointed to see the talk comparing apples and oranges. Maybe if the trend continues for another four or five years, I'd be convinced, but while we're at the end of the consoles lifetime, and while tons of games still saturate the market, the statistics are far more complicated than he lets on.

[Menegrothx]

Do we have to get to the point where we feel that the experience of playing on a iOS/Android device is better than the experience on a major gaming platform?

There are many of us who do not want to switch to the iOS/Android-bandwagon.
According to google the new iPhone model costs 619 euros. Thats a lot of money for a device used for text messaging and calling people. Its just more practical to have a phone that costs 25 to 50 euros and game console that costs 250-400 euros rather than trying to mix those up together, as they both work individually better. Most of these extra features that phones these days do only make them more impractical (more menus to browse through etc). Not to mention that they break a lot more easily. Flashlight and camera are the only unnecessary features on a phone that I can see as being useful every now and then.

And I doubt that these new gaming phones would be like the N-Gage, games would most likely be bought as downloadable titles rather than in a physical format, which many people dont like.

[o.pwuaioc]

Are there no deals or discounts to get when renewing? I paid a whopping total of $50 for my Android phone, and an iPhone would have only cost me $100.

[Erik_Twice]

I'm sorely dissapointed by the old tactic of listing a lot of data and using it to "prove" a point without understanding what that data is in the first place. I'm severly dissapointed by any bussiness

For example, using Microsoft's huge losses in the console market as proof for that the "old world is large but shrinking fast" which is so utterly bollocks and so obviously wrong to anyone that I sincerely I had to try very hard to keep listening after that. As if Microsoft had ever made a single cent in the bussiness.


All the talk about how arcade died is misleading. For example, it's said that the reason why arcades sold ebtter it's because the hardware (well, graphics) was more powerful, ignoring that there was a market slump in 1982 and another one in 1984, all this without console or computer interference. It's misleading to make such a blanket claim and reflects very poorly on the speaker. I also have to ask, yeah, if consoles are why arcades went dead, why are they still so big in Japan? Bad, bad, bad, I really hate misconceptions in this topic (as you can tell )

He also talks too much about how tv killed the cinema. But his graphs show a decline starting in 1948 which was obiviously caused by the outlawing of block booking and other monopolistic practises and not by everyone suddenly getting a television.

Also "arcades are dead with really ancient genres such as 2D fighters" is such a moronic statement that I wanted to punch the speaker in the face. Sorry mates, stop playing your Blazblues and Street Fighters and throw those comedies into the bin, they are ancient now.


But at the end of the day, he doesn't talk about the "new world" at all. I can sum up his entire argument in this:
1) The console bussiness is exactly like the arcade and the cinema (flawed arguments)
2) Facebook games are growing at an exponential rate (Not a single metion of it being a bubble)

Really, I was very dissapointed with the talk.