Nintendo's next thing - What do you think it will be?

[PartridgeSenpai]

I think the next Nintendo console, if we're talking within the next year or two, will basically just be a beefier Switch. Something like a Switch Pro. The console is still selling incredibly well, and so are its games. A Switch 2 would just be an improvement withing the same niche the Switch already fills, so I'm not sure releasing one (especially at a higher price point) would actually be all that compelling an offer without something *huge* to put alongside it, like a Mario Odyssey 2. Failing to actually provide a reason to exist (let alone to replace the old machine) was one of the biggest reasons that the Wii U bombed so hard as a successor to the Wii, after all. Honestly, with Tears of the Kingdom coming out on the Switch with no mention of the next Nintendo machine anywhere in sight, that says to me that Nintendo has no plans to obsolete the Switch any time soon, because otherwise I figure they would've used the next Zelda title to give it a real shot in the arm at launch just like they did with the Switch.

As for backwards compatibility, I think it's very possible that their next machine (be it a Switch Pro or a genuine successor Switch 2) will have BC if the form factor allows for it and they keep using the same sorts of cards. I don't really see the logic in "The 3DS and Wii U had BC and sold badly so they're obviously never going to do it again". The Wii U did terribly for a TON of factors (failing to replace the Wii in its niche like I mentioned above, unclear and poor marketing due to the name, and a library offering a poor alternative to the 360 or PS3, let alone the Xbone or PS4), and the 3DS did poorly at launch for similarly large ones (launch price was far too high and software at launch was very underwhelming). I think it's more accurate to say that having BC did not make up for the much larger failings that the Wii U and 3DS had at launch, not that BC contributed to them having a poor launch. If anything, I think that BC was one of the better ideas that the Wii U and 3DS had at launch to try and entice people, and I think Nintendo has a lot of lessons to learn from just its own experiences with console launches in the past couple years. Particularly with the 3DS: If your successor that proclaims to replace the old machine both lacks compelling software *and* is too expensive compared to just continuing with the old machine, what possible reason could customers have to adopt the new machine, no matter how much more powerful it is?

I'd say the Switch has quite so many Wii U titles on it not just because Nintendo wants to sell them to you again, but for most people, they're just playing these games for the first time, full stop. The Wii U sold miserably, but it still had a great first-party game library. Porting older games with some enhanced features from a console basically no one owned is a great way to help boost the Switch's release schedule without putting a ton of resources into making new games from the ground up. With just how well most Nintendo games on Switch have sold, and with just how many Switches are out there, I think it's going to be far, far harder for Nintendo to sell people enhanced versions of Switch games when they can just get a copy of it used for the Switch they probably already have much more easily & cheaply.

You can even look at how frenzied Microsoft and Sony were to have BC on their next gen machines a few years back and how much fanfare Sony put out in regards to how the PS5 was BC with the PS4. This is clearly something their competitors see customers wanting very significantly as well. If the form factor allows for it, I think the next Nintendo machine will absolutely have BC, because as has been the case historically, BC is a great way to convince people who have the old machine to get the new once, since they can safely get rid of the old machine because the new one does everything the old one did.

[Raging Justice]

I actually wish Nintendo would jump into the VR market. VR is the only thing in gaming that really feels different and fresh right now. Astrobot Rescue Mission is one of the greatest gaming experiences I've ever had, and it's impossible to play that game without wondering what a Nintendo first party VR title would be like. Astrobot feels like a proof of concept VR Mario game. Given Nintendo's love of all things gimmicky, including 3d on the 3ds, I'm actually kind of surprised that it's Sony rather than Nintendo that has dived head first into the VR market.

VR games like Astrobot and Moss give me that childlike sense of wonder and wholesomeness that I used to associate with Nintendo first party titles. We've had 3d, motion control, dual screen, tablets, styluses, and yet VR is like the one gimmicky thing Nintendo HASN'T fully jumped into to. It's kind of weird given their track record.

Maybe they're still upset over the Virtual Boy's lack of success I suppose.

[marurun]

I don’t think Nintendo would assume BC was the cause of failure for the WiiU and 3DS, but it’s not enough to save them from a bad decision, and so I don’t think they will plan on relying on it as a backstop for a new system. Which is to say, I don’t think Nintendo will prioritize BC when planning a new system. Instead, they will prioritize cost and whatever other random goals they decide to pursue. I think BC will only occur if it is convenient, and not because it is any kind of priority for Nintendo.

I can pretty much guarantee Nintendo will not do VR, at least not if they’ve been following consumer sentiment. There is simply not enough interest in VR right now in the market. Survey after survey, not to mention sales performance of existing units, has demonstrated only limited market potential. Further, this is well-treaded ground. Nintendo typically wants to do things in less-trod spaces (unless they are the ones who treaded it).

[PartridgeSenpai]

I can pretty much guarantee Nintendo will not do VR, at least not if they’ve been following consumer sentiment. There is simply not enough interest in VR right now in the market. Survey after survey, not to mention sales performance of existing units, has demonstrated only limited market potential. Further, this is well-treaded ground. Nintendo typically wants to do things in less-trod spaces (unless they are the ones who treaded it).

Same. Nintendo *did* briefly dip their toes into VR with the Switch, and quickly abandoned all notion of it once it was obvious that the market just wasn't there for it (and that their machine could easily succeed without it). Motion controls are already railroading yourself into making very certain kinds of games, and VR is just motion controls with a whole heap of new accessibility (not to mention price point) problems stacked on top of it. Being that Nintendo are historically a toy company and run their company like it, it makes a lot of sense to me that Sony the ever prideful tech company are the only ones really pushing VR in the console space right now.

[marurun]

I've watched/read some content going over how BC on the "next Switch" isn't a given. MVG put out a solid video on this:
https://youtu.be/WH03ht2fVqI
...
In the end, I think it's a 4K dock, OLED 1080p display, and upgraded Nvidia SOC. I do expect it to be Nvidia powered again, designed without much risk taking. Their current CEO, Furukawa, reportedly is fairly conservative in his business operations.

Finally got around to watching that video. Fascinating that neither the CPU nor the graphics subsystems in the newer Tegras are binary backwards compatible with the X1. That does create issues for Nintendo. If you haven't watched the MVG video, please do. Though one not-yet-suggested method would be Nvidia developing a hardware translation layer where the binary is run and certain incompatible calls are mapped in real-time. But that's a really sticky wicket to navigate.

[marurun]

Here is how Nintendo might make their next system and not go with Nvidia.

https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2023/04 ... ck-clones/

[Raging Justice]

You know I find this topic really interesting, because I've recently noticed how EVERYONE is trying to get in on that handheld market that Nintendo has dominated for years and it feels like everyone is making a handheld that is basically a copy of the Switch. There's the Steamdeck obviously. There's the recently released Lonovo Legion Go, which some people have said is better than the Steam Deck. There's also a ton of other companies putting out some form of handheld gaming device. Anbernic Arc S (portable Sega Saturn). PowKiddy XX5. Asus ROG Ally. Retroid Pocket. That's just naming a few.

What's funny is with stuff like the Steamdeck and the Lonovo Legion Go, we're getting a concession to the value of console gaming. They're like portable PCs but designed in a way that would appeal to console gamers. Elitist "Master Race" proponents must hate that.

[marurun]

The handheld ARM Linux/Android devices have been a thing for some time. They're just getting more popular as prices keep falling. Switch may be helping popularity but they've been around for ages. If there's more coming to market it's because more are selling. Steam Deck is absolutely Switch-inspired. There's no way it's not. I haven't seen any PC players complaining about the existence of Steam Deck. There are some who don't like it but most are just, "eh, not for me."

[Reprise]

All I can say is I am really excited for whatever Nintendo comes up with next. It's been feeling like the Switch has been 'winding down' the last 12 months or so and obviously there haven't been a ton of big releases outside of Tears of the Kingdom.

The Switch released in the PS4 generation and was in many ways more powerful than the PS3, 360, Wii U gen, so in my (admittedly ignorant) opinion, it will obviously be either along a similar level of power as a PS4 Pro or XBox One X. I expect they will keep the handheld dockable design, so in my mind, it will be sufficiently powerful for a handheld device. I don't know if it will be backwards compatible, I can see arguments both ways, but if it isn't something that is straightforward for them to include anyways, that might make the decision for them.

[Raging Justice]

All I can say is I am really excited for whatever Nintendo comes up with next. It's been feeling like the Switch has been 'winding down' the last 12 months or so and obviously there haven't been a ton of big releases outside of Tears of the Kingdom.

The Switch released in the PS4 generation and was in many ways more powerful than the PS3, 360, Wii U gen, so in my (admittedly ignorant) opinion, it will obviously be either along a similar level of power as a PS4 Pro or XBox One X. I expect they will keep the handheld dockable design, so in my mind, it will be sufficiently powerful for a handheld device. I don't know if it will be backwards compatible, I can see arguments both ways, but if it isn't something that is straightforward for them to include anyways, that might make the decision for them.

I've seen other people say that it seems to be "winding down", but I don't really see it personally. Super Mario Bros. Wonder and Super Mario RPG were big releases. There's more 1st party stuff coming out next year including a rumored Zelda remake. There is also a ton of indies releasing every month that no one ever talks about. Inti Creates released a new game recently (though the physical version is import only) and the Switch got an exclusive release (unless you count the PC version) from Devolver Digital called Gunbrella (which I'm currently playing)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4E1wWCo03Q

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2jVoGDr-C4

My point being that it doesn't seem like there's a shortage of stuff to play and both SMB Wonder and SMRPG have gotten a ton of hype and attention.